The freshly baked French thread

Original Poster
Joined: Jan 2006
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I had to go with that title. Anyway, I wonder who will go on to the next round of voting. We should probably get an indication around 3-4 EST, says the internet.
Apr 23, 2017 3:27 PM
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I'd like to think that witnessing the clusterfuck of the Trump administration and Brexit has convinced enough left-leaning and moderate voters in France they really need to take the possibility of a Le Pen victory seriously and turn out to vote against it.?
Apr 23, 2017 3:58 PM
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Le Pen will lose in any case in the second round. Our next president is Emmanuel Macron, an empty shell.
Apr 23, 2017 5:22 PM
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drippleLe Pen will lose in any case in the second round. Our next president is Emmanuel Macron, an empty shell.

It looks like Le Pen and Macron. I'm not gonna lie and say I know a whole ton about your country's politics, but ask the Americans here what we were thinking last October.
Apr 23, 2017 6:24 PM
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Meow
drippleLe Pen will lose in any case in the second round. Our next president is Emmanuel Macron, an empty shell.

It looks like Le Pen and Macron. I'm not gonna lie and say I know a whole ton about your country's politics, but ask the Americans here what we were thinking last October.

Yeah, I remember only you seemed conscious of what was happening back then. As for the run-off here, if Putin's men do not interfere, Macron will beat Le Pen hands down.
Apr 23, 2017 8:36 PM
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dripple
Meow
drippleLe Pen will lose in any case in the second round. Our next president is Emmanuel Macron, an empty shell.

It looks like Le Pen and Macron. I'm not gonna lie and say I know a whole ton about your country's politics, but ask the Americans here what we were thinking last October.

Yeah, I remember only you seemed conscious of what was happening back then. As for the run-off here, if Putin's men do not interfere, Macron will beat Le Pen hands down.

Most polls suggested Clinton would beat Trump hands down. Many were well over 90% sure of it, some of them 99% sure of it. Go find the appropriate thread and you'll find Bigwig expressing sentiments pretty much exactly the same as those expressed by you in this post.

Not saying Le Pen isn't going to lose. Just saying I don't find such absolute assurance in the outcome comforting.
Apr 23, 2017 9:29 PM
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Apr 23, 2017 9:34 PM
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Lord Shang

Most polls suggested Clinton would beat Trump hands down. Many were well over 90% sure of it, some of them 99% sure of it. Go find the appropriate thread and you'll find Bigwig expressing sentiments pretty much exactly the same as those expressed by you in this post.

Not saying Le Pen isn't going to lose. Just saying I don't find such absolute assurance in the outcome comforting.

It sounds like semantics, but that was supposed to be Clinton's probability of winning, not how many people would vote for her. It seems that Macron has a much bigger lead in predicted votes than Clinton. I just looked at one that said he's going to take 62% of votes.
Apr 23, 2017 10:02 PM
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The general point about not getting cocky is always a good one, but there are important differences that don't make a Le Pen victory nearly as much of a threat. Macron is polling 2-1, there is no electoral college, Le Pen polls terribly among the elderly, and there is no French equivalent to SCOTUS and/or abortion, that would lead to nose-holding Le Pen voters.

Based on only my cursory understanding of each of the candidates, Fillon struck me as the best choice, but absent absent that, anything-but-Le Pen is a vital necessity. Weirdly, she's not even really that "far right." She's essentially a virulently racist communist. Still a psycho, though.
Apr 23, 2017 10:02 PM
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Aside from Putin, Le Pen does have one other unlikely foreign ally: ISIS and other Islamic extremists who really want as many hardliner Western leaders as possible to play the 'clash of civilizations' game with them. I have to suspect that's what the police officers being shot a few days ago was all about.
Apr 23, 2017 11:10 PM
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I think Le Pen's going to take it. Macron is pro-EU, so I'm guessing a lot of voters will sway Le Pen in the next round out of desperation to leave the EU. I understand that something like 62% of the French want out.
Apr 24, 2017 1:31 AM
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dripple
Meow
drippleLe Pen will lose in any case in the second round. Our next president is Emmanuel Macron, an empty shell.

It looks like Le Pen and Macron. I'm not gonna lie and say I know a whole ton about your country's politics, but ask the Americans here what we were thinking last October.

Yeah, I remember only you seemed conscious of what was happening back then. As for the run-off here, if Putin's men do not interfere, Macron will beat Le Pen hands down.

We all thought Clinton would win. The Obama administration and the head of the FBI were so sure of a Clinton victory they nixed fully elaborating on Russia's involvement because they figured it would delegitimize her eventual victory. Also, not for nothing, but a lot of pro-Trump twitter bots-- those country-fried MAGAers-- are now tweeting out in fucking French.
Apr 24, 2017 3:48 AM
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Yo, dripple, how weird is it that neither of the candidates going forward is from a major party? I'm trying to figure out if that's as mind-bending there as it would be here if suddenly the Dems and Repubs faded to the background in an election here.
Apr 24, 2017 3:55 AM
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Lord Shang
dripple
Meow
drippleLe Pen will lose in any case in the second round. Our next president is Emmanuel Macron, an empty shell.

It looks like Le Pen and Macron. I'm not gonna lie and say I know a whole ton about your country's politics, but ask the Americans here what we were thinking last October.

Yeah, I remember only you seemed conscious of what was happening back then. As for the run-off here, if Putin's men do not interfere, Macron will beat Le Pen hands down.

Most polls suggested Clinton would beat Trump hands down. Many were well over 90% sure of it, some of them 99% sure of it. Go find the appropriate thread and you'll find Bigwig expressing sentiments pretty much exactly the same as those expressed by you in this post.

Not saying Le Pen isn't going to lose. Just saying I don't find such absolute assurance in the outcome comforting.

I don't think the situations are all that comparable. Clinton was up 3-4 points on election day, which many forecasting sites translated into a 90%+ chance of victory. She ended up winning by 2 points and having it distributed among the electoral college in such a way that she lost by a razor thin margin.

LePen is down 24 points in polling. 24!

To analogize this to basketball, Clinton was up by 5 with the ball with 45 seconds to play. Macron is up by 27 with 6 minutes to play.
Apr 24, 2017 4:01 AM
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MeowYo, dripple, how weird is it that neither of the candidates going forward is from a major party? I'm trying to figure out if that's as mind-bending there as it would be here if suddenly the Dems and Repubs faded to the background in an election here.

It's not entirely weird. ?France has both a President and a Prime Minister. ?The Prime Minister has a portion of the executive power of the nation, and is elected by the legislature. ?Thus the PM has to represent the majority party. ?Since neither Le Pen nor Macron have a lot of party support in the legislature (I think Macron has none), neither would have much ability to get legislation passed unless they can built coalitions with the main parties. ?The President's main independent power lies in foreign affairs, so that's important. ?But he or she can't unilaterally pull France out of the EU - there would have to be a referendum.
Apr 24, 2017 12:28 PM
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Esoteric Allusion
Lord Shang
dripple
Meow
drippleLe Pen will lose in any case in the second round. Our next president is Emmanuel Macron, an empty shell.

It looks like Le Pen and Macron. I'm not gonna lie and say I know a whole ton about your country's politics, but ask the Americans here what we were thinking last October.

Yeah, I remember only you seemed conscious of what was happening back then. As for the run-off here, if Putin's men do not interfere, Macron will beat Le Pen hands down.

Most polls suggested Clinton would beat Trump hands down. Many were well over 90% sure of it, some of them 99% sure of it. Go find the appropriate thread and you'll find Bigwig expressing sentiments pretty much exactly the same as those expressed by you in this post.

Not saying Le Pen isn't going to lose. Just saying I don't find such absolute assurance in the outcome comforting.

I don't think the situations are all that comparable. Clinton was up 3-4 points on election day, which many forecasting sites translated into a 90%+ chance of victory. She ended up winning by 2 points and having it distributed among the electoral college in such a way that she lost by a razor thin margin.

LePen is down 24 points in polling. 24!

To analogize this to basketball, Clinton was up by 5 with the ball with 45 seconds to play. Macron is up by ?27 ?with 6 minutes to play.

Clinton was up 11 at one point and was discussing whether to be aggressive in states like Texas.
Apr 24, 2017 3:32 PM
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theVictorianI think Le Pen's going to take it. Macron is pro-EU, so I'm guessing a lot of voters will sway Le Pen in the next round out of desperation to leave the EU. I understand that something like 62% of the French want out.

Haha, no. Filon didn't want out and he got almost as many votes as Pen, and those who voted for Melechon certainly won't be voting Le Pen either.
Apr 24, 2017 3:40 PM
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Meow
dripple
Meow
drippleLe Pen will lose in any case in the second round. Our next president is Emmanuel Macron, an empty shell.

It looks like Le Pen and Macron. I'm not gonna lie and say I know a whole ton about your country's politics, but ask the Americans here what we were thinking last October.

Yeah, I remember only you seemed conscious of what was happening back then. As for the run-off here, if Putin's men do not interfere, Macron will beat Le Pen hands down.

We all thought Clinton would win. The Obama administration and the head of the FBI were so sure of a Clinton victory they nixed fully elaborating on Russia's involvement because they figured it would delegitimize her eventual victory. Also, not for nothing, but a lot of pro-Trump twitter bots-- those country-fried MAGAers-- are now tweeting out in fucking French.

Sure, people thought Clinton would win, but people like 538 gave Trump a very real chance of winning. It was close. Unless something drastic happens, the vast majority of voters who went with Filon and Melenchon are both going to go with Macron, and he will crush her. French polling tends to be accurate, and has been thus far in this election.
Apr 24, 2017 3:43 PM
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Voters actually turned down the prospect of attending yet another fight between representatives of the two mainstream parties, and this is the good news of the election. Macron doesn't need to do much to win now, Just avoid talking nonsense during the TV debate and it's in the bag.

Among other main candidates, M?lenchon shares with Le Pen an open aversion to the EU which could lead to a sizeable transfer of votes from one to the other but still not enough to reverse the trend.

Fillon shot himself in the foot with that fake job case involving his wife while he could have contended for gold. Now, he's clearly lending his support to Macron but how could you trust a man who is a caricature of the 1950's bourgeois proudly standing up for traditional Catholicism?

I believe it's time to move on, but not with people from a party that still had links with neo-Nazi organizations not so long ago.
Apr 24, 2017 10:01 PM
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Zuben
theVictorianI think Le Pen's going to take it. Macron is pro-EU, so I'm guessing a lot of voters will sway Le Pen in the next round out of desperation to leave the EU. I understand that something like 62% of the French want out.

Haha, no. Filon didn't want out and he got almost as many votes as Pen, and those who voted for Melechon certainly won't be voting Le Pen either.

I'm not so sure. Macron is an ex-Rothschild banker who wants to deregulate French business down to things like ending the 35 hour work week. Melenchon's supporters may see him as a bigger threat to their agenda than Le Pen.
Apr 25, 2017 12:42 AM
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