The North Korea Thread

Original Poster
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China's put 150,000 troops on the border and the US has sent a naval strike group to the region. Kim's threatened to nuke Hawaii.

Could be the end for North Korea.
Apr 12, 2017 12:53 AM
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The markets seem to be rapidly pricing in the risk of a major conflict.
Apr 12, 2017 2:31 AM
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Is it possible for a U.S. pre-emptive strike to disable North Korea's ability to launch nukes?
Apr 12, 2017 2:54 AM
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PaquitoIs it possible for a U.S. pre-emptive strike to disable North Korea's ability to launch nukes?

Probably, although a bungle would be a disaster. I think it's a bit of a shame the US and China didn't get together on NK before they were a nuclear power.
Apr 12, 2017 2:56 AM
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PaquitoIs it possible for a U.S. pre-emptive strike to disable North Korea's ability to launch nukes?

That's possible. But it would depend on a lot, and I don't think it's likely to be a success. After all, both the Soviets/Russians and Americans considered that 70 years ago, and developed counter measures. But I don't know the extent of NK's ballistic missile program. They could have mobile units.
Apr 12, 2017 2:57 AM
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Esoteric AllusionThe markets seem to be rapidly pricing in the risk of a major conflict.

I don't think anyone can afford to call NK's bluff any more. The whole region seems to want them removed as a concern.
Apr 12, 2017 3:04 AM
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PaquitoIs it possible for a U.S. pre-emptive strike to disable North Korea's ability to launch nukes?

I don't know, but from what I understand, NK has an absolutely monstrous amount of artillery (somewhere in the realm of 10,000 pieces) within striking distance of Seoul and could literally flatten the city within minutes.They also have a bunch of military grade anthrax and likely a bunch of sarin as well. Nukes are a problem, but they aren't even close to the only issue. If America attacked NK and they flattened Seoul in response, oh man.
Also, I just read that China has just declared they were bomb NK missile sites themselves if NK strikes with nukes.?
Apr 12, 2017 3:06 AM
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Bigwig
PaquitoIs it possible for a U.S. pre-emptive strike to disable North Korea's ability to launch nukes?

That's possible. But it would depend on a lot, and I don't think it's likely to be a success. After all, both the Soviets/Russians and Americans considered that 70 years ago, and developed counter measures. But I don't know the extent of NK's ballistic missile program. They could have mobile units.

They could also have dirty bombs that are fired with artillery or the like that would just be a nightmare for SK.?
Apr 12, 2017 3:09 AM
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The more I think about it, the more I'm beginning to believe that the US is moving that fleet as not only a show of force, but also to shoot down any test missiles the NK wants to fire off. In this particular carrier group are two AEGIS destroyers and one cruiser. Any one of the three would have no problems shooting down those variants of missiles.

I believe this is much more likely than a strike force.
Apr 12, 2017 3:12 AM
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The weird thing about the Kims is that they were clearly fond of Western decadence. I hope their venality is a foil here.
Apr 12, 2017 3:13 AM
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theVictorianThe weird thing about the Kims is that they were clearly fond of Western decadence. I hope their venality is a foil here.

Using foil as a noun is weirding me out. Stop it.?
Apr 12, 2017 3:19 AM
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Zuben
Bigwig
PaquitoIs it possible for a U.S. pre-emptive strike to disable North Korea's ability to launch nukes?

That's possible. But it would depend on a lot, and I don't think it's likely to be a success. After all, both the Soviets/Russians and Americans considered that 70 years ago, and developed counter measures. But I don't know the extent of NK's ballistic missile program. They could have mobile units.

They could also have dirty bombs that are fired with artillery or the like that would just be a nightmare for SK.?

Dirty bombs are scary and of course awful but nothing like an actual functioning warhead.
Apr 12, 2017 3:25 AM
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MosesThe more I think about it, the more I'm beginning to believe that the US is moving that fleet as not only a show of force, but also to shoot down any test missiles the NK wants to fire off. In this particular carrier group are two AEGIS destroyers and one cruiser. Any one of the three would have no problems shooting down those variants of missiles.

I believe this is much more likely than a strike force.

I imagine there are a lot of Phalanx guns along the DMZ, too.
Apr 12, 2017 3:34 AM
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I wonder to what extent any devices sold to NK over the last few years have Russian or Chinese killswitches.
Apr 12, 2017 3:47 AM
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Zuben
PaquitoIs it possible for a U.S. pre-emptive strike to disable North Korea's ability to launch nukes?

I don't know, but from what I understand, NK has an absolutely monstrous amount of artillery (somewhere in the realm of 10,000 pieces) within striking distance of Seoul and could literally flatten the city within minutes.They also have a bunch of military grade anthrax and likely a bunch of sarin as well. Nukes are a problem, but they aren't even close to the only issue. If America attacked NK and they flattened Seoul in response, oh man.
Also, I just read that China has just declared they were bomb NK missile sites themselves if NK strikes with nukes.?


Prior to the election, I said I would be interested to see an alternate timeline play out in which Trump wins the election, just to see how bad things could get without having to suffer through actually living in that timeline myself.

In a similar fashion, I would be very interested to see how South Korea and the world at large would respond if Trump bungles North Korean foreign policy so badly that Seoul, which houses almost half the country's population, were to be flattened by Nork artillery. Even as I, obviously, hope to hell that it doesn't happen.
Apr 12, 2017 5:21 AM
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Lord Shang
Zuben
PaquitoIs it possible for a U.S. pre-emptive strike to disable North Korea's ability to launch nukes?

I don't know, but from what I understand, NK has an absolutely monstrous amount of artillery (somewhere in the realm of 10,000 pieces) within striking distance of Seoul and could literally flatten the city within minutes.They also have a bunch of military grade anthrax and likely a bunch of sarin as well. Nukes are a problem, but they aren't even close to the only issue. If America attacked NK and they flattened Seoul in response, oh man.
Also, I just read that China has just declared they were bomb NK missile sites themselves if NK strikes with nukes.?


Prior to the election, I said I would be interested to see an alternate timeline play out in which Trump wins the election, just to see how bad things could get without having to suffer through actually living in that timeline myself.

In a similar fashion, I would be very interested to see how South Korea and the world at large would respond if Trump bungles North Korean foreign policy so badly that Seoul, which houses almost half the country's population, were to be flattened by Nork artillery. Even as I, obviously, hope to hell that it doesn't happen.

I suspect they'd have to use incendiaries to take care of those artillery emplacements. Bunkers are hard to crack, but suffocation might work.
Apr 12, 2017 5:44 AM
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Zuben
PaquitoIs it possible for a U.S. pre-emptive strike to disable North Korea's ability to launch nukes?

I don't know, but from what I understand, NK has an absolutely monstrous amount of artillery (somewhere in the realm of 10,000 pieces) within striking distance of Seoul and could literally flatten the city within minutes.They also have a bunch of military grade anthrax and likely a bunch of sarin as well. Nukes are a problem, but they aren't even close to the only issue. If America attacked NK and they flattened Seoul in response, oh man.
Also, I just read that China has just declared they were bomb NK missile sites themselves if NK strikes with nukes.?

This is right. It is actually believed that NK has not developed a nuke small enough that it could be mounted in the missiles they currently have (and those missiles seem to dump in the sea half the time they test them). The real threat is the munitions pointed at Seoul, which has been the situation for 50+ years. The question is would the NK military really obey orders to kill thousands or millions of their civilian relatives? If we think the answer is yes, then unfortunately now is the time to stop Un before he actually has a usable ICBM. It can only happen with Chinese cooperation. The deal has to be to oust Un and replace him with a Chinese puppet, as the Chinese will not agree to SK taking over NK. A military coup seems the most likely result in the near future. And the US will have to agree not to put ABMs in SK as part of an agreement with the new military rulers to dismantle the nuclear program in some verifiable way.
I just hope this resolves in the next few months - I have a kid scheduled to do a one month program in Seoul this summer!
Apr 12, 2017 5:25 PM
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I also hope that the entire population of a major international city doesn't get exterminated and spoil your kid's summer plans, Bukama.
Apr 12, 2017 5:31 PM
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That would be a bummer.
Apr 12, 2017 5:31 PM
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A total bummer.
Apr 12, 2017 5:31 PM
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